August 1st, 2011
Panic Never Pays
Ash Sethi – Analyst, MergerTech Advisors
While other tech giants like Microsoft and Google are utilizing multi-billion dollar M&A strategies to rapidly enter market segments in which they have not had traditional focus, Hewlett-Packard, the world’s largest PC maker, announced Thursday that it plans to spin off its hardware business and WebOS, a mere 16 months after spending $1.8 billion to acquire Palm. Many are scratching their heads wondering if HP just blundered its way out of a sector that has been its bread and butter for years.
HP CEO Leo Apothaker may have taken a cue from ex-IBM head Lou Gerstner who years ago saved his company from collapse by phasing out IBM’s well-known but low margin PC business to refocus the firm onto IT services. HP’s announcement in concert with a $10 billion cash purchase of analytics software vendor Autonomy can be read as an acknowledgement that the tablet market has rapidly matured into a choice between iOS and Android devices, and that HP would be better off long term leveraging its R&D assets to develop its software and services business where the environment is far more competitive. So while HP is taking a painful hit in the equity markets, it may prove to master stroke in years to come.
Ironically, HP announced its exit from hardware the same day Google, a renowned provider of web services, paid $12.5 billion to acquire Motorola Mobility and foray into an area it has no experience in: mass manufacturing. While HP might have made a difficult choice to serve a long term strategic growth plan, the Motorola purchase may be a sign of developing trend in defensive driven M&A in the tech sector.
True, with access to Motorola’s engineering process, Google can potentially create a slicker Droid phone, which alone could mount a serious offensive against Apple. Yet Google was more likely thinking of Motorola’s patents and pre-empting a Microsoft takeover when signing the check. Google has no obvious desire to be in hardware, yet had Microsoft got to Motorola first that could have spelled real trouble for Android. Thus Google moved quickly, and Motorola got them to pay a 60% per share premium. Expensive without doubt, but strengthening its patent portfolio will offer competitive protection to Google as they, Microsoft, and Apple all trade legal threats in the US and Europe.
From time to time companies need to engage in defensive moves, either by abandoning low margin or shrinking business segments or acquiring strategic partners to stave off competitors. It certainly makes for more interesting reading when it involves eleven figure M&A transactions.
Ash Sethi – Analyst, MergerTech Advisors
For several years now, it seems that most news pundits and Wall Street analysts are competing to see who can be the most bearish on the US economy. Poor unemployment data, spirited competition from emerging overseas economies, and continuous bickering in Washington over growth in the national debt contribute to a picture of markets suffering various long term crises. These perceptions of present or future weakness in the economy can affect the choices of those looking to buy or sell a company, and not always for the better. Parties on either side of an M&A transaction sometimes miss good purchasing or selling opportunities because they panic and think that better deal value can be realized by moving at a later date.
It is worth noting that despite these economic uncertainties technology M&A deal volume is up 32% from Q2 2010. So why does tech have a hiring boom while automakers are reducing headcount and airlines are going bankrupt? Inherently in the technology space are cross-market synergies which drive rapid growth and make firms attractive targets for strategic acquisition. For example, proliferation of smart phones and tablet devices has created potent demand for services in mobile marketing, gaming, IT security, social media, telecommunications, and software spaces. The convenience of high quality digital downloads of video media as opposed to DVDs have been a boon to providers of broadband and cloud storage services. When one technology sector grows, others typically grow with them. By nature, technology companies are continuously seeking to upgrade existing offerings while simultaneously working to make them obsolete by developing entirely new products.
Even non-technology oriented businesses like hotel chains and apparel makers are discovering that app development and a presence in social media spaces are now integral parts of winning marketing strategies. Competition to acquire companies is driving up both M&A opportunities and sale prices for technology firms. In short, technology is becoming a part of every business space, and that presents huge opportunities for M&A activity that bucks medium term macroeconomic trends. Non-technology firms sometimes struggle with developing or contracting out technology processes, particularly those that are highly dependent on strong user experience (UX), and conclude it is better to acquire an existing team and bring them in house.
From time to time markets experience boom phases or undergo distress, but over the long term the American economy tends to be fairly stable and mean reverting. So while politicians will continue to argue and enormous fiscal challenges lay ahead, good tech talent is and will continue to be in high demand. Don’t pass on a good M&A opportunity when it presents itself to you. Our analysis and data show that the technology M&A market has recovered extremely well from the low points of the recession and both the number of deals and the price at which they are getting done are providing excellent opportunities to convert work into wealth for company founders and shareholders.
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